2010 Sensex predictions of my own!

India Inc (Indian Industry) and Congress party has very different opinions about how the country should be run. India Inc wants the market to be open, free, competitive and the growth to be fast but Congress wants the growth to be slow and steady - what they call as "inclusive growth" (like involve poorest of Indians through schemes like NREGA etc).

Clashes in these ideas and agreements / disagreements over ideas will cause the busts and booms in stock market for next few years, till the point when both party understands other very well. (which will probably never happen?)

Anyways, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee announced date of this year's budget presentation to be on 26th February which led me to remember past budget presentations and market reactions from the past.

I dont invest myself in market, but I do keep a watch and do my own predictions just to amuse myself, have been correct many times in my predictions (like runup of 2007, runup of 2009, 2009 election result 1 day record bull market). It could be because it is easy to predict sitting on sidelines, but whatever makes me happy!

Anyways, so I thought to document my market predictions for 2010 here just so that I can check later and amuse myself more, so here you go-

• Sensex is currently at 17,500
• I think it will keep going further in next two months and by end of February will be at 18,500+
• I think Market will crash around 5-10% on February 26th. Budget presentation will not go very well with market, and they will get disappointed and start taking out money for few days-
  DISINVESTMENT - market expects disinvestment news as always which I dont think will come up in budget presentation.
  HUGE SPENDING - government will keep up (or probably increase) huge spending on schemes like NREGA ... that will not go very well with market.

If I were invested - I would have probably sold some of my stocks a week before 26th and brought back 1-2 days after 26th (if prediction doesnt come true, will probably be no profit no loss, but if prediction goes correct I would probably gain 5-10% in 1 week, very rare is that market will like budget and will go up - so on uptrend shares can be brought back immediately)

• Anyways, sanity will resume in few days, so after few bumps of budget, Market will come back to its position of 18,500 and then again keep rising slowly.
• Finally, I think Sensex will touch 20,000+ level by end of this year.